Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”