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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.